據(jù)鉆機地帶1月9日報道，研究機構(gòu)Intelatus Global Partners發(fā)布2023年影響海上風電行業(yè)的十大因素的研究報告。
預計到2030年，風電將增長到240吉瓦，到2035年將超過410吉瓦。Intelatus研究總監(jiān)菲利普·劉易斯(Philip Lewis)表示，海上風電的美好前景必須與一些正在形成的困難相平衡。他還編制了一份新一年影響該行業(yè)的因素清單：
1.堅實的基礎：在能源轉(zhuǎn)型和能源安全政策的推動下，越來越多超過400吉瓦的國家直接宣布和間接提出海上風電部署目標為該供應鏈的樂觀態(tài)度奠定了基礎。
2.該行業(yè)新加入者：在亞洲大國、英國、歐盟等所有成熟市場，海上風電活動預計將保持強勁。商業(yè)規(guī)模的風電場將在美國、新的歐盟市場（希臘、愛爾蘭、意大利、波蘭和波羅的海國家、葡萄牙、西班牙等）、日本和韓國發(fā)展。澳大利亞、印度、菲律賓、加拿大、巴西和哥倫比亞的政府都將采取措施推進海上風電項目許可。
3.P2X是該行業(yè)規(guī)則的改變者：在海上風能術語中，Power-to-X意味著將電子轉(zhuǎn)換為可移動和可存儲的能源分子。最初產(chǎn)生綠色氫時，電子將轉(zhuǎn)化為一系列氫基能源載體，如甲醇和氫，用于工業(yè)、住宅和交通領域。在這十年內(nèi)，海上風電制氫正從示范項目轉(zhuǎn)向商業(yè)規(guī)模項目。P2X是零補貼風電場的驅(qū)動力，最初在西北歐，未來將進一步擴大。
4.改變樁基：增長的總體樁基是積極的，但將部署哪種類型的樁基？在本世紀20年代內(nèi)安裝的項目中，底部固定式（主要是單樁，但也包括導管架和重力基座）將占據(jù)主導地位，但2023年將更加關注商業(yè)規(guī)模的浮動風電場的開發(fā)，該風電場最早將在本世紀20年代末投入使用，但主要是在2030年之后。
浮動風能為底基項目帶來了不同的制造業(yè)供應鏈機遇和挑戰(zhàn)。市場正在關注大型AHTS、配備合適起重機的海上施工船舶、甲板空間和員工的潛在短缺。這種短缺將成為一種全球現(xiàn)象，并因當?shù)貤l件不同而有所加劇。
5. 通貨膨脹的影響：通貨膨脹和供應鏈中斷將導致海上風能項目延誤甚至取消。幾家開發(fā)商已經(jīng)發(fā)布了項目警告，并尋求在不斷上漲的成本與發(fā)電承諾之間取得平衡。
6.供應鏈重組：三家傳統(tǒng)的國際渦輪機原始設備制造商（西門子、維斯塔斯和通用電氣）由于需要繼續(xù)開發(fā)更大的渦輪機，難以短期盈利。這些更大的渦輪機驅(qū)動更大的樁基、電力電纜和安裝船，所有這些都需要供應鏈投資……并使供應鏈獲得適當?shù)耐顿Y回報。
7.亞洲大國原始設備制造商的擴大：隨著該國市場情況日益復蘇穩(wěn)定，該國渦輪機原始設備制造商和其他供應商正在尋求向海外市場出口。隨著大型新渦輪機推出市場，可以預計前述三大國際企業(yè)將在其核心市場面臨激烈的價格競爭。
8. 船舶(和其他供應鏈)短缺：隨著技術、客戶和本地驅(qū)動因素的不斷發(fā)展，有多少公司會在沒有長期盈利預期的情況下投資新船舶？除了一些成熟的公司，答案是“相對較少”。建造或支持船舶投資的關鍵驅(qū)動因素是項目盈利預期和開發(fā)商的財務投資決策。從本世紀20年代中期起，幾個關鍵市場的船舶投資延遲將給實現(xiàn)預期交付能力帶來阻礙。
9. 船舶市場在不斷發(fā)展，但許多問題仍未得到解答：船舶運營商明白他們需要脫碳，但如何解決未來船舶燃料的問題?是生物燃料、甲醇、氨等氫基燃料，還是其他氫載體？如何轉(zhuǎn)換能源載體——多燃料內(nèi)燃機或燃料電池問題？基于電池的混合動力船，甚至是SOV和CTV的全電動船呢？如何確保“綠色”燃料或電力供應？還有這么多問題沒有達成共識。答案將是基于能源載體可用性的客體選擇。
10.更多的項目所在地條件影響：項目所在地政府希望在當?shù)鼐蜆I(yè)率提升方面受益于海上風電項目投資。研究課題組預計美國、日本和韓國市場的當?shù)卣弑趬緦⒉粩嘣黾印Ｔ谝恍┦袌觯缑绹寺?lián)邦政策外，地方政策因素更加需要考慮地方和州級政府的法律法規(guī)。當?shù)卣叩南拗茖⒔o開發(fā)商造成障礙，并可能導致項目延遲和取消。成熟的歐洲市場開放貿(mào)易框架將為持續(xù)跨境項目投資活動和穩(wěn)固供應鏈提供信心。
郝芬 譯自 鉆機地帶
原文如下：
Ten Factors That Will Shape Offshore Wind In 2023
Intelatus Global Partners has looked at ten factors that will shape the offshore wind sector in 2023.
The sector is forecast to grow to 240 GW by 2030 and over 410 GW by 2035. Philip Lewis, a Director of Research at Intelatus, said that the sunny outlook for offshore wind must be balanced with some building dark clouds. He also compiled a list of factors influencing the sector in the new year.
1. Solid foundations: Optimism for the supply chain is founded on declared and inferred offshore wind deployment targets by a growing number of countries of over 400 GW, driven by energy transition and energy security policies.
2. New kids on the block: Offshore wind activity is expected to remain strong in all established markets –the biggest country in Asia,the UK, the European Union. Commercial-scale wind farms will advance in the US, new European Union markets (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Poland and the Baltics, Portugal, Spain, etc.), Japan, and South Korea. Governments in Australia, India, the Philippines, Canada, Brazil, and Columbia will all take steps to advance offshore wind project permitting.
3. P2X is a game changer: Power-to-X in offshore wind terms means converting electrons to moveable and storable molecules. Initially producing green hydrogen, the electrons will be converted to a range of hydrogen-based energy carriers such as methanol and hydrogen for use in the industrial, residential, and transportation segments. Offshore wind-to-hydrogen production is moving from demonstration to commercial-scale projects within this decade. P2X is the driver for zero-subsidy wind farms, initially in northwest Europe and expanding further in the future.
4. Shifting foundations: The overall foundations for growth are positive, but what type of foundations will be deployed? Bottom fixed (mainly monopiles but also jackets and gravity bases) will dominate on projects installed within this decade, but 2023 will see an increased focus on the development of commercial-scale floating wind farms, which will come on stream at the very earliest at the end of this decade but mainly after 2030.
Floating wind drives different manufacturing supply chain opportunities and challenges to bottom-fixed projects. We are focusing on a potential shortage of large AHTSs, offshore construction vessels with suitable cranes and deck space and crew. The shortage will become a global phenomenon accentuated by local content requirements.
5. The impacts of inflation: Inflation and supply chain disruptions will result in delays and possibly cancellations. Several developers have issued project warnings and are seeking to balance rising costs with power offtake commitments.
6. Supply chain restructuring: The three traditional international turbine OEMs (Siemens, Vestas, and GE) struggle to make money as they continue developing ever-larger turbines. These larger turbines drive bigger foundations, power cables, and installation vessels, all requiring supply chain investments…and for the supply chain to make suitable returns on investments.
7. The expansion of the OEMs of the biggest country in Asia: As the Chinese market settles down after an exceptional 2021,turbine OEMs of the biggest country in Asia and other suppliers are looking to export to overseas markets. With large new turbines being offered, one can expect the big three international players to face stiff price competition in their core markets.
8. Vessel (and other supply chain) shortages: With the evolving technical, client, and local content drivers, how many companies will invest in new vessels without long-term commitments? Outside of some established players, the answer is “relatively few.” The key driver for construction or support vessel investment is project commitments coupled with developer financial investment decisions. Delays in vessel investment in several key markets will pose a problem from the middle of the decade in delivering forecast capacity.
9. Vessels are evolving, but many questions remain unanswered: Vessel operators understand that they need to decarbonize, but what is the solution to future-proof a vessel? Will it be biofuels, hydrogen-based fuels such as methanol, ammonia, or other hydrogen carriers? How to convert the energy carriers - multi-fuel internal combustion engines or fuel cells? What about battery-based hybrid vessels or even fully electric for SOVs and CTVs? How to secure “green” fuel or electricity supply? So many questions with no firm consensus. The answer will be an individual choice based on the availability of energy carriers.
10. More local content: Governments want a return on their investment in offshore wind in terms of local employment. We anticipate increasing local content barriers in the U.S., Japanese, and South Korean markets. In some markets, like the United States, local content is established at a local and state level in addition to federal policies. Local restrictions will create barriers for developers and may result in project delays and cancellations. The established European market’s open trade framework will support ongoing cross-border activity and supply chain confidence.
